Shan-ul-Hai

On the Brink of a Malthusian Catastrophe



Posted: Wednesday, April 30, 2008

by
Globally Rational

On the brink of a Malthusian catastropheAbout 200 years ago, the mathematician Thomas Robert Malthus famously wrote an equation predicting that the human population would soon reach the planet's ecological carrying capacity, causing many of us to die off because of the lack of food and resources (just like what we have often seen with other species). He expected it to have already happened well before 2008 (especially because of the rapid population growth of the last 200 years), but we've managed to stave it off thanks to the effects of the Industrial Revolution. Recently, however, I've been seeing more and more articles suggesting that the hunger crisis is on its way to reaching epidemic proportions. World population by year

The UN is expecting that this lack of food will kill about 100 million of the world's current residents, suggesting that we're on the brink of a cap in our population. When everybody tries to share an inadequate amount of food, nobody gets enough… so this could lead to bigger problems in the future. As growth continues in some parts of the world, the increased number of mouths to feed will eventually mean that we'll see the mass die-off that Malthus predicted. It seems like we're following either the orange or the green trend on the graph (see right), since such a huge negative shift couldn't possibly be on the same order as the red line.

The Malthusian catastrophe is not unexpected; we've expected it for a long time, but we managed to delay it with new technology. The biggest question has just been the timing of the effect, an it seems like we're on our way there now. Odds are that it won't directly affect you, since you're obviously well-off enough to be reading this in your spare time, so we probably won't bother to do anything about it. Recently, for example, Sam's Club and Costco set a purchasing limit of 4 bags of rice per customer per visit… which is 3 more bags than I've ever bought.

We need to ask ourselves if we care enough to really do something about this.

You can read more of my work at my website, Globally Rational.


Shan-ul-Hai, the chief author of Globally Rational, is a self-described cosmopolitan scientist.  His articles typically involve the application of evidence-based logic to some of the world's most interesting and thought-provoking affairs.  His background as a Pakistani-American supplements his training as a scientist and his skill as a writer, leading to a myriad of of unique perspectives.
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